GIF Sundsvall 3–1 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

GIF Sundsvall

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

8/22/2021

Superettan · Round 17NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

GIF Sundsvall44%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GIF SundsvallExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.23

GIF Sundsvall

1.54

AFC Eskilstuna

1.23

GIF Sundsvall creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 75 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.45

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.47

AFC Eskilstuna

1.00

allows per match

GIF Sundsvall

1.45

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GIF Sundsvall ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

GIF Sundsvall or draw

70%

GIF Sundsvall or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

56%

Winning margin

GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+

22%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals

79%

GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals

45%

GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals

20%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

71%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

35%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)

59%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GIF Sundsvall at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.45 · 83 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.47 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GIF Sundsvall scores more

44%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

30%

GIF Sundsvall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff