Gievenbeck 4–2 Vreden: Result & Stats

Gievenbeck

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Vreden

4/2/2026

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 29Senger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gievenbeck48%

×Draw23%

Vreden29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GievenbeckExpected goals in this matchVreden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.41

Gievenbeck

1.85

Vreden

1.41

Gievenbeck creates 31% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 90 away

1.81

creates per match

1.46

1.35

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Gievenbeck

1.81

Vreden

1.46

allows per match

Gievenbeck

1.35

Vreden

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par

Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

Vreden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw

71%

Gievenbeck or Vreden

77%

Draw or Vreden

52%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+

26%

Vreden wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals

84%

Gievenbeck 2+ goals

55%

Gievenbeck 3+ goals

28%

Vreden 1+ goals

76%

Vreden 2+ goals

41%

Vreden 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)

62%

Vreden (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Vreden attack 1.46 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gievenbeck scores more

48%

level

23%

Vreden scores more

29%

Gievenbeck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff