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Gievenbeck vs Schermbeck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Schermbeck
Schermbeck
2/9/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22UKM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gievenbeck46%
×Draw23%
Schermbeck31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gievenbeck
1.77
Schermbeck
1.43

Gievenbeck creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 90 away

creates per match

Gievenbeck
1.81
Schermbeck
1.51

allows per match

Gievenbeck
1.35
Schermbeck
1.72

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par
Schermbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

Schermbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw
69%
Gievenbeck or Schermbeck
77%
Draw or Schermbeck
54%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+
24%
Schermbeck wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals
83%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
53%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
26%
Schermbeck 1+ goals
76%
Schermbeck 2+ goals
42%
Schermbeck 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
59%
Schermbeck (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Schermbeck away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.72 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + Schermbeck defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.77

Schermbeck attack 1.51 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gievenbeck scores more
46%
level
23%
Schermbeck scores more
31%

Gievenbeck at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gievenbeck vs Schermbeck

Gievenbeck beat Schermbeck 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at UKM Arena in Münster.