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Gievenbeck vs Erkenschwick — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Erkenschwick
Erkenschwick
9/7/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Senger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Gievenbeck48%
×Draw23%
Erkenschwick29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gievenbeck
1.86
Erkenschwick
1.41

Gievenbeck creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Gievenbeck
1.81
Erkenschwick
1.47

allows per match

Gievenbeck
1.35
Erkenschwick
1.91

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par
Erkenschwick+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

Erkenschwick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw
71%
Gievenbeck or Erkenschwick
77%
Draw or Erkenschwick
52%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+
27%
Erkenschwick wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals
84%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
55%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
28%
Erkenschwick 1+ goals
76%
Erkenschwick 2+ goals
41%
Erkenschwick 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
62%
Erkenschwick (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Erkenschwick away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + Erkenschwick defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Erkenschwick attack 1.47 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gievenbeck scores more
48%
level
23%
Erkenschwick scores more
29%

Gievenbeck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gievenbeck vs Erkenschwick

Gievenbeck beat Erkenschwick 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Senger Arena in Münster.