Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gievenbeck vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Gievenbeck
Gievenbeck
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
2/21/2026Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Senger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gievenbeck39%
×Draw23%
ASC Dortmund38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gievenbeck
1.69
ASC Dortmund
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 89 away

creates per match

Gievenbeck
1.81
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Gievenbeck
1.35
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Gievenbeck+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gievenbeck ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gievenbeck or draw
62%
Gievenbeck or ASC Dortmund
77%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
61%

Winning margin

Gievenbeck wins by 2+
20%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gievenbeck 1+ goals
82%
Gievenbeck 2+ goals
50%
Gievenbeck 3+ goals
24%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
81%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
49%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gievenbeck (draw refunded)
51%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gievenbeck at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gievenbeck attack 1.81 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Gievenbeck defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gievenbeck scores more
39%
level
23%
ASC Dortmund scores more
38%

Gievenbeck at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gievenbeck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gievenbeck vs ASC Dortmund

Gievenbeck and ASC Dortmund drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Senger Arena in Münster.