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Gicumbi vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Gicumbi
Gicumbi
FT
2 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
11/3/2021National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 2Gicumbi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gicumbi41%
×Draw28%
Etoile de l'Est32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gicumbi
1.28
Etoile de l'Est
1.09

Gicumbi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gicumbi
0.89
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Gicumbi
1.48
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Gicumbi+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gicumbi ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gicumbi or draw
68%
Gicumbi or Etoile de l'Est
72%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
59%

Winning margin

Gicumbi wins by 2+
18%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gicumbi 1+ goals
72%
Gicumbi 2+ goals
37%
Gicumbi 3+ goals
14%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
66%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
30%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gicumbi (draw refunded)
56%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gicumbi at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gicumbi attack 0.89 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Gicumbi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gicumbi scores more
41%
level
28%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
32%

Gicumbi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gicumbi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gicumbi vs Etoile de l'Est

Gicumbi beat Etoile de l'Est 2-0 in National Soccer League on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Gicumbi Stadium in Byumba.