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Gibraltar W vs Panama W — Friendlies Women 2026

Gibraltar W
Gibraltar W
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Panama W
Panama W
D. Salazar 85'
E. M. Cedeno Coba 76', 27', 22'
M. Cox 60' (pen)
E. Hernandez 45+2'
K. Riley 39'
6/26/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gibraltar W19%
×Draw18%
Panama W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar W
1.35
Panama W
2.57

Panama W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gibraltar W
1.00
Panama W
1.25

allows per match

Gibraltar W
3.89
Panama W
1.71

finishing

Gibraltar W+0.00on par
Panama W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar W ↓

Panama W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Gibraltar W or draw
37%
Gibraltar W or Panama W
82%
Draw or Panama W
81%

Winning margin

Gibraltar W wins by 2+
8%
Panama W wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Gibraltar W 1+ goals
74%
Gibraltar W 2+ goals
39%
Gibraltar W 3+ goals
15%
Panama W 1+ goals
92%
Panama W 2+ goals
72%
Panama W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar W (draw refunded)
23%
Panama W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Panama W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar W attack 1.00 + Panama W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Panama W attack 1.25 + Gibraltar W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gibraltar W scores more
19%
level
18%
Panama W scores more
63%

Panama W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Panama W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
E. M. Cedeno Coba
26'
T. Gilbert
27'
E. M. Cedeno Coba
39'
K. Riley
45+2'
E. Hernandez
46'
S. Gonzalez← L. Batista
46'
K. Riley← N. Mills
46'
K. Castillo← M. Cox
60'
M. CoxPenalty
62'
C. Montenegro← D. Salazar
62'
S. Fabrega← S. Fabrega
67'
D. Salah El-Din
71'
J. Cummings← J. Cummings
71'
A. Ambrosio← A. Ambrosio
76'
E. M. Cedeno Coba
85'
D. Salazar
90'
I. Rodriguez← I. Rodriguez
90'
N. Nash← N. Nash
90'
S. Popham← S. Popham

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gibraltar W vs Panama W

Panama W beat Gibraltar W 7-0 in Friendlies Women on June 26, 2023.

Goals: E. M. Cedeno Coba (22', 27', 76'), K. Riley (39'), E. Hernandez (45+2'), M. Cox (60' pen), D. Salazar (85').

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.