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Gibraltar W vs Hungary W — Friendlies Women 2026

Gibraltar W
Gibraltar W
FT
0 – 12
HT: 0 – 7
Hungary W
Hungary W
D. Zeller 90+4', 43', 33', 19'
Unknown 78', 71' (pen), 57'
S. Pusztai 60'
F. Vago 38'
A. Neale 31' (OG)
L. Turanyi 20'
E. Fenyvesi 11'
9/5/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gibraltar W10%
×Draw12%
Hungary W78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar W
1.29
Hungary W
3.59

Hungary W creates 178% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gibraltar W
1.00
Hungary W
3.29

allows per match

Gibraltar W
3.89
Hungary W
1.57

finishing

Gibraltar W+0.00on par
Hungary W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar W ↓

Hungary W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Gibraltar W or draw
22%
Gibraltar W or Hungary W
88%
Draw or Hungary W
90%

Winning margin

Gibraltar W wins by 2+
4%
Hungary W wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Gibraltar W 1+ goals
72%
Gibraltar W 2+ goals
37%
Gibraltar W 3+ goals
14%
Hungary W 1+ goals
97%
Hungary W 2+ goals
86%
Hungary W 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar W (draw refunded)
11%
Hungary W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Hungary W away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar W attack 1.00 + Hungary W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hungary W attack 3.29 + Gibraltar W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Gibraltar W scores more
10%
level
12%
Hungary W scores more
78%

Hungary W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hungary W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Fenyvesi
19'
D. Zeller
20'
L. Turanyi
31'
A. NealeOwn goal
32'
C. Pizzarello
33'
D. Zeller
38'
F. Vago
43'
D. Zeller
57'
60'
S. Pusztai
71'
Penalty
78'
90+4'
D. Zeller

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gibraltar W 0 – 12 Hungary W

Hungary W beat Gibraltar W 12-0 in Friendlies Women on September 5, 2022.

Goals: E. Fenyvesi (11'), D. Zeller (19', 33', 43', 90+4'), L. Turanyi (20'), A. Neale (31' o.g.), F. Vago (38'), ? (57', 71' pen, 78'), S. Pusztai (60').

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.