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Gibraltar W vs Faroe Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Gibraltar W
Gibraltar W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Faroe Islands W
Faroe Islands W
J. N. Mortensen 15'
2/20/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gibraltar W24%
×Draw19%
Faroe Islands W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar W
1.55
Faroe Islands W
2.45

Faroe Islands W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Gibraltar W
1.00
Faroe Islands W
1.00

allows per match

Gibraltar W
3.89
Faroe Islands W
2.11

finishing

Gibraltar W+0.00on par
Faroe Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar W ↓

Faroe Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gibraltar W or draw
43%
Gibraltar W or Faroe Islands W
81%
Draw or Faroe Islands W
76%

Winning margin

Gibraltar W wins by 2+
11%
Faroe Islands W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Gibraltar W 1+ goals
79%
Gibraltar W 2+ goals
46%
Gibraltar W 3+ goals
20%
Faroe Islands W 1+ goals
91%
Faroe Islands W 2+ goals
70%
Faroe Islands W 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar W (draw refunded)
29%
Faroe Islands W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

Faroe Islands W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar W attack 1.00 + Faroe Islands W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.55

Faroe Islands W attack 1.00 + Gibraltar W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gibraltar W scores more
24%
level
19%
Faroe Islands W scores more
57%

Faroe Islands W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Faroe Islands W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. N. Mortensen
74'
74'
74'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gibraltar W vs Faroe Islands W

Faroe Islands W beat Gibraltar W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on February 20, 2022.

Goals: J. N. Mortensen (15').

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.