Gibraltar 0–0 Wales: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Gibraltar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wales

6/6/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Gibraltar64%

×Draw27%

Wales9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GibraltarExpected goals in this matchWales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.34

Gibraltar

1.39

Wales

0.34

Gibraltar creates 309% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

0.11

0.57

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Gibraltar

1.00

Wales

0.11

allows per match

Gibraltar

0.57

Wales

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw

91%

Gibraltar or Wales

73%

Draw or Wales

36%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+

33%

Wales wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals

75%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

40%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

16%

Wales 1+ goals

29%

Wales 2+ goals

5%

Wales 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

88%

Wales (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Wales away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 1.00 + Wales defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Wales attack 0.11 + Gibraltar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gibraltar scores more

64%

level

27%

Wales scores more

9%

Gibraltar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

B. Lopes

Gibraltar · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

45+1'

46'

55'

60'

B. Johnson← F. Stevens

60'

D. James← R. Matondo

60'

K. Moore← R. Colwill

70'

A. El Hmidi← E. Jolley

73'

L. Koumas← L. Cullen

76'

J. Bartolo← J. Scanlon

76'

E. Santos← L. Annesley

78'

C. Crew← C. Savage

85'

Charlie Crew

87'

J. Chipolina← L. Walker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GibraltarWales

Overview

21%Possession79%

1Total Shots17

1Corners15

11Fouls11

Shots

1Total Shots17

1On Target4

0Off Target9

0Blocked4

0Inside Box10

1Outside Box7

Passing

21%Possession79%

181Total Passes647

101Accurate Passes575

56%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4