Gibraltar 0–2 Scotland: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Gibraltar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Scotland

C. Adams 85'

R. Christie 58'

6/3/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gibraltar36%

×Draw30%

Scotland34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GibraltarExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Gibraltar

1.09

Scotland

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

1.55

0.57

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Gibraltar

1.00

Scotland

1.55

allows per match

Gibraltar

0.57

Scotland

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw

66%

Gibraltar or Scotland

70%

Draw or Scotland

64%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+

14%

Scotland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals

66%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

30%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

10%

Scotland 1+ goals

65%

Scotland 2+ goals

29%

Scotland 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

51%

Scotland (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 1.00 + Scotland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Scotland attack 1.55 + Gibraltar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gibraltar scores more

36%

level

30%

Scotland scores more

34%

Gibraltar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Robertson

Scotland · D

8.9

Match Events

46'

L. Cooper← G. Hanley

58'

R. Christie↳ L. Shankland

66'

K. Ronan← J. Scanlon

66'

L. Casciaro← A. El Hmidi

66'

K. Tierney← A. Robertson

66'

C. Adams← J. Forrest

73'

C. McGregor← K. McLean

73'

R. Jack← B. Gilmour

77'

E. De Haro← L. Walker

77'

S. McKenna← L. Cooper

85'

C. Adams↳ J. McGinn

86'

J. Bartolo← T. De Barr

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GibraltarScotland

Overview

24%Possession76%

1Total Shots25

0Corners12

8Fouls8

Shots

1Total Shots25

1On Target5

0Off Target15

0Blocked5

0Inside Box21

1Outside Box4

Passing

24%Possession76%

212Total Passes628

135Accurate Passes566

64%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Offsides1