Gibraltar 1–1 Moldova: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Gibraltar

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moldova

L. Walker 68' (pen)

V. Mudrac 40'

11/19/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Europa Point Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gibraltar57%

×Draw27%

Moldova16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GibraltarExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.62

Gibraltar

1.42

Moldova

0.62

Gibraltar creates 129% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

0.57

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Gibraltar

1.00

Moldova

0.67

allows per match

Gibraltar

0.57

Moldova

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Moldova →

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw

84%

Gibraltar or Moldova

73%

Draw or Moldova

43%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+

29%

Moldova wins by 2+

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals

76%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

41%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

17%

Moldova 1+ goals

46%

Moldova 2+ goals

13%

Moldova 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

78%

Moldova (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 1.00 + Moldova defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Moldova attack 0.67 + Gibraltar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gibraltar scores more

57%

level

27%

Moldova scores more

16%

Gibraltar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Nichita Moțpan

40'

V. Mudrac

46'

S. Plătică← D. Pușcaș

46'

A. Kozhukhar← C. Avram

51'

Victor Stina

53'

Kian Ronan

56'

E. De Haro← G. Torrilla

62'

D. Mandrîcenco← V. Postolachi

67'

Teodor Lungu

68'

L. WalkerPenalty

70'

C. Cotogoi← T. Lungu

70'

D. Danu← N. Moțpan

77'

Maxim Cojocaru

78'

I. Nicolăescu← V. Stînă

87'

Daniel Danu

89'

A. El Hmidi← L. Walker

90+1'

90+4'

90+1'

90+1'

90+5'

J. Bartolo← T. De Barr

Gibraltar4-3-3

Moldova5-3-2

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⚽

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⚽

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Manager: J. Ribas

56'▲E. De Haro←▼G. Torrilla

89'▲A. El Hmidi←▼L. Walker

90+5'▲J. Bartolo←▼T. De Barr

Gibraltar substitutes

HaroHmidiBartolo

Manager: S. Cleşcenco

46'▲S. Plătică←▼D. Pușcaș

46'▲A. Kozhukhar←▼C. Avram

62'▲D. Mandrîcenco←▼V. Postolachi

70'▲C. Cotogoi←▼T. Lungu

70'▲D. Danu←▼N. Moțpan

78'▲I. Nicolăescu←▼V. Stînă

Moldova substitutes

PlăticăKozhukharMandrîcencoCotogoiDanuNicolăescu