Gibraltar U19 2–9 Wales U19: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gibraltar U19Expected goals in this matchWales U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

3.50

Gibraltar U19

1.00

Wales U19

3.50

Wales U19 creates 250% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.50

creates per match

2.00

5.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gibraltar U19

0.50

Wales U19

2.00

allows per match

Gibraltar U19

5.00

Wales U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Wales U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar U19 ↓

Wales U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–38%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Gibraltar U19 or draw

18%

Gibraltar U19 or Wales U19

89%

Draw or Wales U19

93%

Winning margin

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

2%

Wales U19 wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

63%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

26%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

8%

Wales U19 1+ goals

97%

Wales U19 2+ goals

85%

Wales U19 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

8%

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 6 matches

Wales U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.50 + Wales U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wales U19 attack 2.00 + Gibraltar U19 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Gibraltar U19 scores more

7%

level

11%

Wales U19 scores more

82%

Wales U19 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Wales U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

23'

23'

37'

38'

44'

46'

F. Cawthorn← F. Huart

46'

K. Rodriguez← A. Buckley

53'

M. A. Emrani

53'

J. Caetano

58'

M. EmraniPenalty

61'

J. Colwill← A. Bennett

61'

J. Crole← M. Wigley

61'

Z. Williams← S. Godden

70'

J. Crole

72'

H. Jewitt-White← B. Purcell

72'

M. Williams← B. Lloyd

73'

76'

79'

83'

83'

84'

84'

85'

88'

89'

90+4'

C. PopovPenalty

Gibraltar

Wales

12

Ridd

13

▼

Godden

18

Bennett

15

⚽

Hanks

10

⚽

Congreve

6

Cotterill

8

⚽

▼

Lloyd

14

▼

Purcell

20

▼

Bennett

19

⚽

▼

Wigley

9

⚽2

Popov

1

Victor

4

Britto

17

▼

Buckley

18

▼

Villa

19

Caetano

10

⚽

▼

Emrani

12

⚽

▼

Huart

8

▼

11

7

6

Manager: M. Martin

23'▲J. Soiza←▼S. Perera

46'▲F. Cawthorn←▼F. Huart

46'▲K. Rodriguez←▼A. Buckley

73'▲L. Soiza←▼J. Villa

76'▲J. Colton←▼M. Emrani

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

15Soiza9Cawthorn3Rodriguez2Soiza16Colton5Busto20Negron14Zammitt13Mifsud

Manager: R. Edwards

61'▲J. Colwill←▼A. Bennett

61'▲J. Crole←▼M. Wigley

61'▲Z. Williams←▼S. Godden

72'▲H. Jewitt-White←▼B. Purcell

72'▲M. Williams←▼B. Lloyd

Wales U19 substitutes

7Colwill11Crole3Williams16Jewitt-White2Williams4Hammond5Ludvigsen1Hollingshead17Bell

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Wales U19

Wales U19 beat Gibraltar U19 9-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 27, 2022.

Goals: J. Hanks (4'), C. Popov (23', 90+4' pen), B. Lloyd (37'), M. Wigley (38'), F. Huart (44'), M. Emrani (58' pen), J. Crole (70'), C. Congreve (79'), Z. Williams (84'), J. Colwill (88').

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrecsam.

Gibraltar U19 vs Wales U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Wales U19