Gibraltar U19 1–2 Malta U19: Result & Stats

Gibraltar U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malta U19

L. Chipolina 53' (pen)

N. Agius 73' (pen)

T. Melillo 18'

10/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gibraltar U1921%

×Draw17%

Malta U1962%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gibraltar U19Expected goals in this matchMalta U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.95

Gibraltar U19

1.70

Malta U19

2.95

Malta U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.50

creates per match

0.90

5.00

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Gibraltar U19

0.50

Malta U19

0.90

allows per match

Gibraltar U19

5.00

Malta U19

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Malta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar U19 ↓

Malta U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Gibraltar U19 or draw

38%

Gibraltar U19 or Malta U19

83%

Draw or Malta U19

79%

Winning margin

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

9%

Malta U19 wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

82%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

51%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

24%

Malta U19 1+ goals

95%

Malta U19 2+ goals

79%

Malta U19 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Malta U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 6 matches

Malta U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.50 + Malta U19 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.70

Malta U19 attack 0.90 + Gibraltar U19 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gibraltar U19 scores more

21%

level

17%

Malta U19 scores more

62%

Malta U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Melillo

27'

N. J. Agius

40'

J. Coombes

46'

A. Avellano← J. Martinez

46'

K. Smith← K. Gonzalez

46'

K. Hili← S. Carabott

46'

T. Eviparker← K. Bartolo

53'

L. ChipolinaPenalty

58'

S. Magri

65'

J. Ostheider

73'

N. AgiusPenalty

79'

A. Avellano

82'

B. Cassar← J. Azzopardi

82'

D. Agius← N. Agius

83'

P. Ohaka

87'

A. Achhoud← J. Ostheider

87'

90+4'

90+7'

90+3'

Gibraltar

Malta

12

Sissons

20

▼

Ohaka

5

Borg

6

Zammit

3

▼

Carabott

16

Magri

15

⚽

Melillo

11

▼

Azzopardi

10

Delicata

7

⚽

▼

Agius

19

▼

1

6

3

2

▼

Ostheider

5

Coombes

16

⚽

Chipolina

7

Peacock

19

Holden

18

▼

Gonzalez

9

▼

Martinez

17

▼

Hancock

Manager: S. Wiseman

46'▲A. Avellano←▼J. Martinez

46'▲K. Smith←▼K. Gonzalez

87'▲A. Achhoud←▼J. Ostheider

87'▲L. Mason←▼A. Hancock

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

11Avellano12Smith15Achhoud10Mason8Federico14Garro4Stevens20Buckley13Williams-Owen

Manager: P. Gatt

46'▲K. Hili←▼S. Carabott

46'▲T. Eviparker←▼K. Bartolo

82'▲B. Cassar←▼J. Azzopardi

82'▲D. Agius←▼N. Agius

90+3'▲N. Briffa←▼P. Ohaka

Malta U19 substitutes

13Hili18Eviparker8Cassar14Agius2Briffa17Sammut1Frendo

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Gibraltar U19 1–2 Malta U19

Malta U19 beat Gibraltar U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2024.

Goals: T. Melillo (18'), L. Chipolina (53' pen), N. Agius (73' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.

Gibraltar U19 vs Malta U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Gibraltar U19 1–2 Malta U19