Gibraltar U19 0–8 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

Gibraltar U19

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 5

Latvia U19

K. Grabovskis 74', 31', 22', 2'

E. Evelons 64'

I. Patrikejevs 54' (pen), 40'

R. Bočs 6'

10/17/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2RFS Jāņa Skredeļa sporta komplekss sintētiskais laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gibraltar U1911%

×Draw14%

Latvia U1975%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gibraltar U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.98

Gibraltar U19

1.09

Latvia U19

2.98

Latvia U19 creates 173% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

0.50

creates per match

0.95

5.00

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Gibraltar U19

0.50

Latvia U19

0.95

allows per match

Gibraltar U19

5.00

Latvia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Gibraltar U19 or draw

25%

Gibraltar U19 or Latvia U19

86%

Draw or Latvia U19

89%

Winning margin

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

4%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

66%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

30%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

10%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

95%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

79%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 6 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.50 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.09

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + Gibraltar U19 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gibraltar U19 scores more

11%

level

14%

Latvia U19 scores more

75%

Latvia U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Latvia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

6'

22'

31'

39'

40'

42'

R. Gaucis

45'

E. Evelons← R. Gaučis

46'

M. Tihonovics

46'

C. De Torres← J. Peacock

46'

D. Duo← J. Villa

46'

L. Chipolina← R. Emrani

48'

M. Ivulans

54'

I. PatrikejevsPenalty

57'

J. Bartolo← J. Martinez

60'

C. De Torres

60'

Ņ. Jemeļjanovs← M. Tihonovičs

64'

E. Evelons

68'

E. Busto← C. De Torres

74'

K. Grabovskis

87'

K. Cesnieks

Gibraltar

Latvia

1

Veisbuks

13

▼

Tihonovič

5

Smirnovs

15

Cēsnieks

8

⚽4

Grabovski

10

⚽2

7

11

2

19

▼

Gaučis

21

⚽

Bočs

13

Charvetto

2

▼

Villa

14

▼

Peacock

7

Richards

10

▼

4

3

6

9

▼

Martinez

8

Stevens

11

Jessop

Manager: M. Martin

46'▲C. De Torres←▼J. Peacock

46'▲D. Duo←▼J. Villa

46'▲L. Chipolina←▼R. Emrani

57'▲J. Bartolo←▼J. Martinez

68'▲E. Busto←▼C. De Torres

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

18Torres12Duo17Chipolina19Bartolo16Busto15Negron5Perera20Sciortino1Williams-Owen

Manager: J. Dovalils

45'▲E. Evelons←▼R. Gaučis

60'▲Ņ. Jemeļjanovs←▼M. Tihonovičs

Latvia U19 substitutes

16Evelons4Jemeļjanovs9Petrovs14Sedols17Jesse18Mežsargs3Lormanis20Purs12Čevers

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Latvia U19

Latvia U19 beat Gibraltar U19 8-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 17, 2023.

Goals: K. Grabovskis (2', 22', 31', 74'), R. Bočs (6'), I. Patrikejevs (40', 54' pen), E. Evelons (64').

The match was played at RFS Jāņa Skredeļa sporta komplekss sintētiskais laukums in Riga.

Gibraltar U19 vs Latvia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Latvia U19