Gibraltar U19 0–1 Georgia U19: Result & Stats

Gibraltar U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Georgia U19

K. Doltmurziev 53'

11/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gibraltar U1915%

×Draw15%

Georgia U1969%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gibraltar U19Expected goals in this matchGeorgia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

3.04

Gibraltar U19

1.40

Georgia U19

3.04

Georgia U19 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.50

creates per match

1.07

5.00

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Gibraltar U19

0.50

Georgia U19

1.07

allows per match

Gibraltar U19

5.00

Georgia U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Georgia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar U19 ↓

Georgia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Gibraltar U19 or draw

31%

Gibraltar U19 or Georgia U19

85%

Draw or Georgia U19

85%

Winning margin

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

6%

Georgia U19 wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

75%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

41%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

17%

Georgia U19 1+ goals

95%

Georgia U19 2+ goals

80%

Georgia U19 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Georgia U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 6 matches

Georgia U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.50 + Georgia U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Georgia U19 attack 1.07 + Gibraltar U19 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gibraltar U19 scores more

15%

level

15%

Georgia U19 scores more

69%

Georgia U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Georgia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

T. Montovio

27'

J. Rowbottom

41'

L. Khutsishvili

46'

K. Doltmurziev← D. Gogilashvili

53'

K. Doltmurziev↳ M. Shatirishvili

65'

R. Danelia← S. Nioradze

65'

G. Peradze← A. Bartishvili

79'

85'

85'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+2'

90+2'

Gibraltar

Georgia

1

Kavlashvi

4

A

3

15

17

13

▼

Nioradze

16

Dzneladze

8

Khutsishv

18

▼

Bartishvi

20

▼

11

1

2

5

4

3

10

6

12

16

14

20

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

13Charvetto7Ramirez8Desoiza9Caetano11Murien15Aboudi18Buckley19Navas

Manager: L. Pirtskhalaishvili

46'▲K. Doltmurziev←▼D. Gogilashvili

65'▲R. Danelia←▼S. Nioradze

65'▲G. Peradze←▼A. Bartishvili

Georgia U19 substitutes

12Chochoshvili2Bochorishvili6Ratiani7Murvanidze9Doltmurziev10Danelia14Gvazava19Peradze

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Georgia U19

Georgia U19 beat Gibraltar U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Doltmurziev (53').

Gibraltar U19 vs Georgia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gibraltar U19 vs Georgia U19