Gibraltar U19 vs Armenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Gibraltar U1917%
Armenia U1967%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Armenia U19 creates 104% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over82
- Under18
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Gibraltar U19 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Gibraltar U19 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 6 matches
Armenia U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Gibraltar U19 attack 0.50 + Armenia U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.47
Armenia U19 attack 1.00 + Gibraltar U19 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 67%?"
Armenia U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 67% does not mean "Armenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Armenia U19 substitutes
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San Marino U19Gibraltar U19
Liechtenstein U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Gibraltar U19 host Armenia U19 on Tuesday, 16 November 2021 at 11:00. The match is part of the UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Gibraltar U19 0 – 1 Armenia U19
Armenia U19 beat Gibraltar U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2021.
Goals: G. Arakelyan (5').
The match was played at Igralište Lučkog in Zagreb.