Giana Erminio 2–0 Trento: Result & Stats

Giana Erminio

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trento

D. Stückler 78'

V. De Maria 19'

4/5/2025

League #138 · Girone A - 35Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Giana Erminio41%

×Draw26%

Trento34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Giana ErminioExpected goals in this matchTrento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Giana Erminio

1.42

Trento

1.27

Giana Erminio creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

1.30

1.24

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Giana Erminio

1.24

Trento

1.30

allows per match

Giana Erminio

1.24

Trento

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giana Erminio+0.00on par

Trento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giana Erminio ↓

Trento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Giana Erminio or draw

66%

Giana Erminio or Trento

74%

Draw or Trento

59%

Winning margin

Giana Erminio wins by 2+

19%

Trento wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Giana Erminio 1+ goals

76%

Giana Erminio 2+ goals

41%

Giana Erminio 3+ goals

17%

Trento 1+ goals

72%

Trento 2+ goals

36%

Trento 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Giana Erminio (draw refunded)

55%

Trento (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giana Erminio at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Trento away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giana Erminio attack 1.24 + Trento defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Trento attack 1.30 + Giana Erminio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Giana Erminio scores more

41%

level

26%

Trento scores more

34%

Giana Erminio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Giana Erminio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. De Maria

25'

A. CapelliMissed penalty

37'

A. Capelli

39'

M. Ballabio

46'

D. Stückler← M. Tirelli

46'

N. Previtali← V. De Maria

46'

C. Aucelli← D. Vitturini

59'

M. Nichetti← M. Marotta

59'

L. Caferri← A. Lamesta

68'

A. Trainotti← N. Falasco

68'

D. Peralta← F. Disanto

71'

76'

78'

80'

86'

T. Cappelli← A. Barison

88'

F. Renda← D. Pinto

90'

L. Caferri

Giana

Trento

1

Barlocco

54

▼

Falasco

6

▼

Barison

66

▼

44

20

10

77

▼

Rada

99

Accornero

11

▼

9

22

6

18

⚽

▼

Maria

13

Colombara

47

Scaringi

14

▼

Marotta

7

▼

Pinto

15

Ballabio

10

▼

Lamesta

9

▼

Tirelli

11

Capelli

Manager: A. Chiappella

46'▲D. Stückler←▼M. Tirelli

46'▲N. Previtali←▼V. De Maria

59'▲M. Nichetti←▼M. Marotta

59'▲L. Caferri←▼A. Lamesta

88'▲F. Renda←▼D. Pinto

Giana Erminio substitutes

19Stückler26Previtali4Nichetti23Caferri99Renda1Pirola12Buzzi17Avinci21Pala27Alborghetti30Ledonne37Bassanini77Piazza

Manager: L. Tabbiani

46'▲C. Aucelli←▼D. Vitturini

68'▲A. Trainotti←▼N. Falasco

68'▲D. Peralta←▼F. Disanto

76'▲M. Sangalli←▼A. Rada

86'▲T. Cappelli←▼A. Barison

Trento substitutes

23Aucelli4Trainotti21Peralta38Sangalli19Cappelli8Cappelletti22Tommasi32Titi