Ghazl El Mehalla 0–2 Smouha SC: Result & Stats

Ghazl El Mehalla

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Smouha SC

B. Boateng 85'

Hossam Hassan 17'

5/2/2023

Premier League · Round 27El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla34%

×Draw30%

Smouha SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ghazl El MehallaExpected goals in this matchSmouha SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.04

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.02

Smouha SC

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 124 away

0.86

creates per match

1.02

1.06

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.86

Smouha SC

1.02

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

1.06

Smouha SC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

Smouha SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw

65%

Ghazl El Mehalla or Smouha SC

70%

Draw or Smouha SC

66%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

13%

Smouha SC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

64%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

27%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

8%

Smouha SC 1+ goals

65%

Smouha SC 2+ goals

28%

Smouha SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

49%

Smouha SC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 86 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.86 + Smouha SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

34%

level

30%

Smouha SC scores more

35%

Smouha SC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Hossam Hassan

34'

B. Boateng← Hossam Hassan

40'

Mohamed Saeed

46'

C. Ekpenyong← Karim Mostafa

46'

D. Dokou← Mahmoud Abdel Halim

51'

Douko Dodo

73'

Ahmed Reda← Ehab Samir

73'

Hazem Morsi← G. Ibitham

74'

Mohamed Nadi← Mohamed Saeed

74'

Ahmed Mostafa← S. Ougola

85'

B. Boateng↳ Ahmed Mostafa

88'

Charles Ekpenyong

88'

Zeyad Tarek← Mostafa Saad

Statistics

GhazlSmouha

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0