Ghazl El Mehalla vs El Geish — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Ghazl El Mehalla36%
El Geish32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 86 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ghazl El Mehalla ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 86 matches
El Geish away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.86 + El Geish defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99
El Geish attack 0.78 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Ghazl El Mehalla at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Ghazl El Mehalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL MasryGhazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FCEl Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SC
Haras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Ghazl El Mehalla host El Geish on Thursday, 7 November 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Ghazl El Mehalla 2–3 El Geish
El Geish beat Ghazl El Mehalla 3-2 in Premier League on November 7, 2024.
Goals: Emad Fathy (14'), G. Okwara (70' pen), M. Hammouda (79', 90+5'), Ahmed El Sheikh (88').
Ghazl El Mehalla controlled possession (63%) and registered 23 shots to 12.
The match was played at El Mahalla Stadium in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.