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Ghazl El Mehalla vs El Entag EL Harby — Premier League 2018

Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
El Entag EL Harby
El Entag EL Harby
8/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla37%
×Draw29%
El Entag EL Harby34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.16
El Entag EL Harby
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
0.86
El Entag EL Harby
1.14

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla
1.06
El Entag EL Harby
1.45

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par
El Entag EL Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

El Entag EL Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw
66%
Ghazl El Mehalla or El Entag EL Harby
71%
Draw or El Entag EL Harby
63%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+
15%
El Entag EL Harby wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals
69%
Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals
32%
Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals
11%
El Entag EL Harby 1+ goals
67%
El Entag EL Harby 2+ goals
30%
El Entag EL Harby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)
52%
El Entag EL Harby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

El Entag EL Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.86 + El Entag EL Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

El Entag EL Harby attack 1.14 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more
37%
level
29%
El Entag EL Harby scores more
34%

Ghazl El Mehalla at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ghazl El Mehalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ghazl El Mehalla vs El Entag EL Harby

El Entag EL Harby beat Ghazl El Mehalla 3-1 in Premier League on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at El Mahalla Stadium in El-Mahalla El-Kubra.