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Gharraf vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2025

Gharraf
Gharraf
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
D. Gueye Dieme 89' (pen), 62'
6/2/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gharraf39%
×Draw28%
Naft Maysan33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gharraf
1.25
Naft Maysan
1.11

Gharraf creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

Gharraf
0.95
Naft Maysan
1.18

allows per match

Gharraf
1.05
Naft Maysan
1.55

finishing

Gharraf+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gharraf ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gharraf or draw
67%
Gharraf or Naft Maysan
72%
Draw or Naft Maysan
61%

Winning margin

Gharraf wins by 2+
17%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gharraf 1+ goals
71%
Gharraf 2+ goals
36%
Gharraf 3+ goals
13%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
67%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
30%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gharraf (draw refunded)
55%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gharraf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gharraf attack 0.95 + Naft Maysan defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Naft Maysan attack 1.18 + Gharraf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gharraf scores more
39%
level
28%
Naft Maysan scores more
33%

Gharraf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gharraf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
D. Gueye Dieme
89'
D. Gueye DiemePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Gharraf 0–2 Naft Maysan

Naft Maysan beat Gharraf 2-0 in Iraqi League on June 2, 2026.

Goals: D. Gueye Dieme (62', 89' pen).