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Gharraf vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2025

Gharraf
Gharraf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
Y. Oumarou 56'
12/31/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gharraf31%
×Draw31%
Al-Karma38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gharraf
0.91
Al-Karma
1.05

Al-Karma creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Gharraf
0.95
Al-Karma
1.05

allows per match

Gharraf
1.05
Al-Karma
0.86

finishing

Gharraf+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gharraf ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gharraf or draw
62%
Gharraf or Al-Karma
69%
Draw or Al-Karma
69%

Winning margin

Gharraf wins by 2+
11%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gharraf 1+ goals
60%
Gharraf 2+ goals
23%
Gharraf 3+ goals
6%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
65%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
28%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gharraf (draw refunded)
45%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gharraf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gharraf attack 0.95 + Al-Karma defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al-Karma attack 1.05 + Gharraf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gharraf scores more
31%
level
31%
Al-Karma scores more
38%

Al-Karma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Y. Oumarou
90+2'
H. Dakhel
90+2'
H. Dakhel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gharraf vs Al-Karma

Al-Karma beat Gharraf 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 31, 2025.

Goals: Y. Oumarou (56').