Ghana W 3–0 Senegal W: Result & Stats

Ghana W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Senegal W

G. Assifuah 45+1', 2'

G. Asantewaa 8'

4/8/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ghana W75%

×Draw16%

Senegal W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ghana WExpected goals in this matchSenegal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.81

Ghana W

2.55

Senegal W

0.81

Ghana W creates 215% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

3.50

creates per match

0.93

0.70

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ghana W

3.50

Senegal W

0.93

allows per match

Ghana W

0.70

Senegal W

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ghana W+0.00on par

Senegal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghana W ↓

Senegal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ghana W or draw

90%

Ghana W or Senegal W

84%

Draw or Senegal W

25%

Winning margin

Ghana W wins by 2+

53%

Senegal W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ghana W 1+ goals

92%

Ghana W 2+ goals

72%

Ghana W 3+ goals

46%

Senegal W 1+ goals

56%

Senegal W 2+ goals

19%

Senegal W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ghana W (draw refunded)

88%

Senegal W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghana W at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Senegal W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghana W attack 3.50 + Senegal W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

Senegal W attack 0.93 + Ghana W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ghana W scores more

75%

level

16%

Senegal W scores more

10%

Ghana W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ghana W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

G. Assifuah

8'

G. Asantewaa

10'

21'

38'

45+1'

G. Assifuah

70'

A. Achiaa← A. Achiaa

70'

P. Owusu← P. Owusu

83'

L. Eshun← L. Eshun

84'

S. Teye← S. Teye

90'

90+1'

F. Yakubu← F. Yakubu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff