Ghajnsielem 1–4 Birkirkara: Result & Stats

Ghajnsielem

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Birkirkara

3/2/2021

FA Trophy · Round of 16Gozo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ghajnsielem49%

×Draw20%

Birkirkara30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GhajnsielemExpected goals in this matchBirkirkara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.75

Ghajnsielem

2.25

Birkirkara

1.75

Ghajnsielem creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

2.25

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ghajnsielem

2.75

Birkirkara

2.25

allows per match

Ghajnsielem

1.25

Birkirkara

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ghajnsielem+0.00on par

Birkirkara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghajnsielem ↓

Birkirkara →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Ghajnsielem or draw

70%

Ghajnsielem or Birkirkara

80%

Draw or Birkirkara

51%

Winning margin

Ghajnsielem wins by 2+

29%

Birkirkara wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ghajnsielem 1+ goals

89%

Ghajnsielem 2+ goals

65%

Ghajnsielem 3+ goals

39%

Birkirkara 1+ goals

83%

Birkirkara 2+ goals

52%

Birkirkara 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ghajnsielem (draw refunded)

62%

Birkirkara (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ghajnsielem at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Birkirkara away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ghajnsielem attack 2.75 + Birkirkara defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Birkirkara attack 2.25 + Ghajnsielem defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ghajnsielem scores more

49%

level

20%

Birkirkara scores more

30%

Ghajnsielem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ghajnsielem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff