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GFE 105 vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
0 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
3/17/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

GFE 10528%
×Draw30%
Western Stima42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
0.91
Western Stima
1.17

Western Stima creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.88
Western Stima
1.28

allows per match

GFE 105
1.06
Western Stima
0.94

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
58%
GFE 105 or Western Stima
70%
Draw or Western Stima
72%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
10%
Western Stima wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
60%
GFE 105 2+ goals
23%
GFE 105 3+ goals
6%
Western Stima 1+ goals
69%
Western Stima 2+ goals
33%
Western Stima 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
40%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.88 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Western Stima attack 1.28 + GFE 105 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GFE 105 scores more
28%
level
30%
Western Stima scores more
42%

Western Stima at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: GFE 105 0–1 Western Stima

Western Stima beat GFE 105 1-0 in Super League on March 17, 2018.