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GFE 105 vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
0 – 4
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
10/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GFE 10522%
×Draw28%
Ushuru FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
0.81
Ushuru FC
1.39

Ushuru FC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.87
Ushuru FC
1.44

allows per match

GFE 105
1.33
Ushuru FC
0.75

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
49%
GFE 105 or Ushuru FC
72%
Draw or Ushuru FC
78%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
7%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
56%
GFE 105 2+ goals
19%
GFE 105 3+ goals
5%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
75%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
40%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
30%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.87 + Ushuru FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Ushuru FC attack 1.44 + GFE 105 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GFE 105 scores more
22%
level
28%
Ushuru FC scores more
51%

Ushuru FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: GFE 105 0–4 Ushuru FC

Ushuru FC beat GFE 105 4-0 in Super League on October 3, 2018.