GFE 105 1–0 Nakuru AllStars: Result & Stats

GFE 105

FT

1 – 0

Nakuru AllStars

3/7/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

GFE 10546%

×Draw29%

Nakuru AllStars25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFE 105Expected goals in this matchNakuru AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.83

GFE 105

1.23

Nakuru AllStars

0.83

GFE 105 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

0.82

creates per match

0.43

1.24

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

GFE 105

0.82

Nakuru AllStars

0.43

allows per match

GFE 105

1.24

Nakuru AllStars

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Nakuru AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw

75%

GFE 105 or Nakuru AllStars

71%

Draw or Nakuru AllStars

54%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+

20%

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals

71%

GFE 105 2+ goals

35%

GFE 105 3+ goals

13%

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

56%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

20%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)

65%

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.82 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.43 + GFE 105 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GFE 105 scores more

46%

level

29%

Nakuru AllStars scores more

25%

GFE 105 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GFE 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff