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GFE 105 vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
2 – 1
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
9/9/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

GFE 10527%
×Draw26%
Nairobi Stima47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
1.03
Nairobi Stima
1.47

Nairobi Stima creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.87
Nairobi Stima
1.60

allows per match

GFE 105
1.33
Nairobi Stima
1.20

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
53%
GFE 105 or Nairobi Stima
74%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
73%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
10%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
64%
GFE 105 2+ goals
28%
GFE 105 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
77%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
43%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
36%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.87 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nairobi Stima attack 1.60 + GFE 105 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

GFE 105 scores more
27%
level
26%
Nairobi Stima scores more
47%

Nairobi Stima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nairobi Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GFE 105 vs Nairobi Stima

GFE 105 beat Nairobi Stima 2-1 in Super League on September 9, 2018.