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GFE 105 vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

GFE 105
GFE 105
FT
2 – 1
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
6/16/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

GFE 10535%
×Draw29%
Kibera Black Stars36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GFE 105
1.07
Kibera Black Stars
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 109 away

creates per match

GFE 105
0.83
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

GFE 105
1.22
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw
64%
GFE 105 or Kibera Black Stars
71%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
65%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+
14%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals
66%
GFE 105 2+ goals
29%
GFE 105 3+ goals
9%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
66%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
30%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)
49%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.83 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + GFE 105 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

GFE 105 scores more
35%
level
29%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
36%

Kibera Black Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GFE 105 vs Kibera Black Stars

GFE 105 beat Kibera Black Stars 2-1 in Super League on June 16, 2018.