GFE 105 1–1 Administration Police Fc

GFE 105

FT

1 – 1

Administration Police Fc

8/1/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

GFE 10544%

×Draw28%

Administration Police Fc28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFE 105Expected goals in this matchAdministration Police Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

GFE 105

1.32

Administration Police Fc

1.00

GFE 105 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

0.88

creates per match

0.94

1.06

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

GFE 105

0.88

Administration Police Fc

0.94

allows per match

GFE 105

1.06

Administration Police Fc

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFE 105+0.00on par

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFE 105 ↓

Administration Police Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

GFE 105 or draw

72%

GFE 105 or Administration Police Fc

72%

Draw or Administration Police Fc

56%

Winning margin

GFE 105 wins by 2+

20%

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

GFE 105 1+ goals

73%

GFE 105 2+ goals

38%

GFE 105 3+ goals

15%

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

63%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

26%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

GFE 105 (draw refunded)

61%

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFE 105 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFE 105 attack 0.88 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Administration Police Fc attack 0.94 + GFE 105 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GFE 105 scores more

44%

level

28%

Administration Police Fc scores more

28%

GFE 105 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GFE 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff