GFC Topoľčany W 0–0 Tatran Prešov W: Result & Stats

GFC Topoľčany W

FT

0 – 0

Tatran Prešov W

11/18/2023

I Liga - Women · Round 13Futbalový štadión Spartak - UT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W44%

×Draw22%

Tatran Prešov W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFC Topoľčany WExpected goals in this matchTatran Prešov W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.67

GFC Topoľčany W

1.92

Tatran Prešov W

1.67

GFC Topoľčany W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

1.62

creates per match

1.79

1.54

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.62

Tatran Prešov W

1.79

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.54

Tatran Prešov W

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Tatran Prešov W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw

66%

GFC Topoľčany W or Tatran Prešov W

78%

Draw or Tatran Prešov W

56%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

24%

Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

85%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

57%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

30%

Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals

81%

Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals

50%

Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

56%

Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Tatran Prešov W away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Tatran Prešov W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tatran Prešov W attack 1.79 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

44%

level

22%

Tatran Prešov W scores more

34%

GFC Topoľčany W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "GFC Topoľčany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff