GFC Topoľčany W 0–1 Ružomberok W: Result & Stats

GFC Topoľčany W

FT

0 – 1

Ružomberok W

3/16/2024

I Liga - Women · Round 17Futbalové ihrisko OFK Tesáre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

GFC Topoľčany W41%

×Draw22%

Ružomberok W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GFC Topoľčany WExpected goals in this matchRužomberok W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.70

GFC Topoľčany W

1.82

Ružomberok W

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 65 away

1.62

creates per match

1.85

1.54

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.62

Ružomberok W

1.85

allows per match

GFC Topoľčany W

1.54

Ružomberok W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GFC Topoľčany W ↓

Ružomberok W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

GFC Topoľčany W or draw

64%

GFC Topoľčany W or Ružomberok W

78%

Draw or Ružomberok W

59%

Winning margin

GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+

22%

Ružomberok W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals

84%

GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals

54%

GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals

27%

Ružomberok W 1+ goals

82%

Ružomberok W 2+ goals

51%

Ružomberok W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)

53%

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GFC Topoľčany W at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.62 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.82

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

GFC Topoľčany W scores more

41%

level

22%

Ružomberok W scores more

36%

GFC Topoľčany W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "GFC Topoľčany W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff