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Geylang International vs Tanjong Pagar — Premier League 2019

Geylang International
Geylang International
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
10/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Geylang International52%
×Draw20%
Tanjong Pagar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geylang International
2.42
Tanjong Pagar
1.76

Geylang International creates 38% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 70 away

creates per match

Geylang International
1.94
Tanjong Pagar
1.47

allows per match

Geylang International
2.05
Tanjong Pagar
2.89

finishing

Geylang International+0.00on par
Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geylang International ↓

Tanjong Pagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Geylang International or draw
72%
Geylang International or Tanjong Pagar
80%
Draw or Tanjong Pagar
48%

Winning margin

Geylang International wins by 2+
32%
Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Geylang International 1+ goals
91%
Geylang International 2+ goals
69%
Geylang International 3+ goals
43%
Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
83%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
52%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Geylang International (draw refunded)
65%
Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geylang International at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

Tanjong Pagar away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geylang International attack 1.94 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.42

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.47 + Geylang International defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Geylang International scores more
52%
level
20%
Tanjong Pagar scores more
28%

Geylang International at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Geylang International will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geylang International vs Tanjong Pagar

Geylang International and Tanjong Pagar drew 3-3 in Premier League on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Town Square at Our Tampines Hub in Singapore.