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Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongtaek Citizen — K4 League 2026

Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
Preview
08:00
Pyeongtaek Citizen
Pyeongtaek Citizen
9/5/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 21
53%
Geumsan Insam
model favours
53%25%22%

Geumsan Insam sit 3, Pyeongtaek Citizen 13 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Geumsan Insam53%
×Draw25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geumsan Insam
1.63
Pyeongtaek Citizen
0.94

Geumsan Insam creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Geumsan Insam
1.43
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.17

allows per match

Geumsan Insam
0.71
Pyeongtaek Citizen
1.83

finishing

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par
Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geumsan Insam ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Geumsan Insam or draw
78%
Geumsan Insam or Pyeongtaek Citizen
75%
Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen
47%

Winning margin

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
29%
Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
80%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
48%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
22%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals
61%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals
24%
Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
71%
Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geumsan Insam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geumsan Insam attack 1.43 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Geumsan Insam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Geumsan Insam scores more
53%
level
25%
Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more
22%

Geumsan Insam at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Insam
WLWDD
Citizen
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Geumsan Insam host Pyeongtaek Citizen

September 5, 2026: Geumsan Insam take on Pyeongtaek Citizen in K4 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.