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Geumsan Insam vs Pyeongchang United — K4 League 2026

Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
FT
2 – 1
Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United
3/7/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geumsan Insam50%
×Draw26%
Pyeongchang United24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geumsan Insam
1.53
Pyeongchang United
0.98

Geumsan Insam creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Geumsan Insam
1.43
Pyeongchang United
1.25

allows per match

Geumsan Insam
0.71
Pyeongchang United
1.63

finishing

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par
Pyeongchang United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geumsan Insam ↓

Pyeongchang United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Geumsan Insam or draw
76%
Geumsan Insam or Pyeongchang United
74%
Draw or Pyeongchang United
50%

Winning margin

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
26%
Pyeongchang United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
78%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
45%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
20%
Pyeongchang United 1+ goals
62%
Pyeongchang United 2+ goals
26%
Pyeongchang United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
67%
Pyeongchang United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geumsan Insam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Pyeongchang United away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geumsan Insam attack 1.43 + Pyeongchang United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Pyeongchang United attack 1.25 + Geumsan Insam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Geumsan Insam scores more
50%
level
26%
Pyeongchang United scores more
24%

Geumsan Insam at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Geumsan Insam 2–1 Pyeongchang United

Geumsan Insam beat Pyeongchang United 2-1 in K4 League on March 7, 2026.