Geumsan Insam vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang

Geumsan Insam

Preview

08:00

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

7/25/2026

K4 League · Round 18

Big match

41%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

model favours

34%26%41%

Top-of-the-table clash — Geumsan Insam 3 vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geumsan Insam34%

×Draw26%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geumsan InsamExpected goals in this matchJungnang Chorus Mustang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.43

Geumsan Insam

1.28

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.43

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

2.14

0.71

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Geumsan Insam

1.43

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.14

allows per match

Geumsan Insam

0.71

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geumsan Insam ↓

Jungnang Chorus Mustang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Geumsan Insam or draw

59%

Geumsan Insam or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

74%

Draw or Jungnang Chorus Mustang

66%

Winning margin

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+

15%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals

72%

Geumsan Insam 2+ goals

37%

Geumsan Insam 3+ goals

14%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

76%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

42%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)

45%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geumsan Insam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geumsan Insam attack 1.43 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.14 + Geumsan Insam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Geumsan Insam scores more

34%

level

26%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

41%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Insam

WLWDD

Mustang

WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff