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Geumsan Insam vs Geoje Citizen — K4 League 2026

Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
FT
2 – 1
Geoje Citizen
Geoje Citizen
5/31/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Geumsan Insam39%
×Draw27%
Geoje Citizen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geumsan Insam
1.28
Geoje Citizen
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Geumsan Insam
1.43
Geoje Citizen
1.63

allows per match

Geumsan Insam
0.71
Geoje Citizen
1.13

finishing

Geumsan Insam+0.00on par
Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geumsan Insam ↓

Geoje Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Geumsan Insam or draw
66%
Geumsan Insam or Geoje Citizen
73%
Draw or Geoje Citizen
61%

Winning margin

Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
17%
Geoje Citizen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
72%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
37%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
14%
Geoje Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Geoje Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Geoje Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
54%
Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geumsan Insam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geumsan Insam attack 1.43 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Geumsan Insam defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Geumsan Insam scores more
39%
level
27%
Geoje Citizen scores more
34%

Geumsan Insam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geumsan Insam vs Geoje Citizen

Geumsan Insam beat Geoje Citizen 2-1 in K4 League on May 31, 2026.