Getafe 0–1 Valladolid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Getafe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Valladolid

S. Weissman 37'

1/2/2021

La Liga · Round 17Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Getafe48%

×Draw28%

Valladolid24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.83

Getafe

1.32

Valladolid

0.83

Getafe creates 59% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 82 away

1.09

creates per match

0.78

0.88

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Getafe

1.09

Valladolid

0.78

allows per match

Getafe

0.88

Valladolid

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

76%

Getafe or Valladolid

72%

Draw or Valladolid

52%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

23%

Valladolid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

73%

Getafe 2+ goals

38%

Getafe 3+ goals

15%

Valladolid 1+ goals

56%

Valladolid 2+ goals

20%

Valladolid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

67%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Valladolid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.55 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.09 + Valladolid defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Valladolid attack 0.78 + Getafe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Getafe scores more

48%

level

28%

Valladolid scores more

24%

Getafe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jordi Masip

Valladolid · G

8.2

Match Events

37'

S. Weissman

46'

Portillo← A. Nyom

59'

Djené

66'

Timor← Nemanja Maksimović

71'

Erick Cabaco

72'

Pablo Hervías← Jota

72'

Óscar Plano← Toni Suárez

73'

Damián Suárez

81'

John Patrick← M. Olivera

84'

Luis Pérez

84'

Rubén Alcaraz← S. Weissman

84'

Sergi Guardiola← Kike Pérez

87'

Rubén Alcaraz

89'

Javier Sánchez← Roque Mesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GetafeValladolid

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots8

5Corners9

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

4On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked4

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

408Total Passes363

304Accurate Passes243

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2