Getafe 3–2 Girona: Result & Stats | La Liga

Getafe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Girona

Borja Mayoral 43'

E. Ünal 14' (pen), 2'

Miguel Gutiérrez 80'

V. Castellanos 54'

3/4/2023

La Liga · Round 24Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Getafe40%

×Draw27%

Girona32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchGirona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.14

Getafe

1.31

Girona

1.14

Getafe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

1.05

creates per match

1.23

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Getafe

1.05

Girona

1.23

allows per match

Getafe

1.04

Girona

1.56

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Getafe-0.10scores less

Girona-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

Girona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

68%

Getafe or Girona

73%

Draw or Girona

60%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

18%

Girona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

73%

Getafe 2+ goals

38%

Getafe 3+ goals

14%

Girona 1+ goals

68%

Girona 2+ goals

32%

Girona 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

56%

Girona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.04 · 39 matches

Girona away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.05 + Girona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Girona attack 1.23 + Getafe defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Getafe scores more

40%

level

27%

Girona scores more

32%

Getafe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Ünal

Getafe · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

E. Ünal↳ Borja Mayoral

12'

Javier Hernández

14'

E. ÜnalPenalty

24'

Rodrigo Riquelme

43'

Borja Mayoral↳ M. El Haddadi

45+1'

Ángel Algobia

46'

Valery← Aleix García

46'

David López← Juanpe

46'

Miguel Gutiérrez← Arnau Martínez

54'

V. Castellanos↳ V. Tsygankov

69'

Djené

69'

Reinier← Rodrigo Riquelme

72'

Domingos Duarte

73'

Carles Aleñá← Ángel Algobia

73'

Juan Iglesias← D. Suárez

73'

Luis Milla← M. El Haddadi

80'

C. Stuani← Javi Hernández

80'

Miguel Gutiérrez

88'

Jaime Mata← Borja Mayoral

88'

Jaime Seoane← E. Ünal

90+2'

90'

90+5'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GetafeGirona

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots9

1.49Expected Goals (xG)0.79

3Corners3

24Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots9

6On Target7

1Off Target1

3Blocked1

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

298Total Passes484

190Accurate Passes366

64%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

24Fouls11

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Getafe 3 – 2 Girona

Getafe beat Girona 3-2 in La Liga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: E. Ünal (2', 14' pen), Borja Mayoral (43'), V. Castellanos (54'), Miguel Gutiérrez (80').

Girona controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in Getafe.

Getafe vs Girona — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Getafe 3 – 2 Girona