Getafe 0–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Getafe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Basel 1893

10/24/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Getafe57%

×Draw25%

FC Basel 189318%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GetafeExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.76

Getafe

1.57

FC Basel 1893

0.76

Getafe creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.27

0.25

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Getafe

1.50

FC Basel 1893

1.27

allows per match

Getafe

0.25

FC Basel 1893

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Getafe or draw

82%

Getafe or FC Basel 1893

75%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

43%

Winning margin

Getafe wins by 2+

30%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Getafe 1+ goals

79%

Getafe 2+ goals

46%

Getafe 3+ goals

21%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

53%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

18%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Getafe (draw refunded)

76%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe attack 1.50 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.27 + Getafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Getafe scores more

57%

level

25%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

18%

Getafe at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Getafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff