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Getafe II vs Ursaria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ursaria
Ursaria
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Getafe Campo 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II39%
×Draw27%
Ursaria34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.31
Ursaria
1.19

Getafe II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Getafe II
1.71
Ursaria
1.37

allows per match

Getafe II
1.00
Ursaria
0.91

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Ursaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
66%
Getafe II or Ursaria
73%
Draw or Ursaria
61%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
18%
Ursaria wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
73%
Getafe II 2+ goals
38%
Getafe II 3+ goals
14%
Ursaria 1+ goals
70%
Ursaria 2+ goals
33%
Ursaria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
54%
Ursaria (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ursaria attack 1.37 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Getafe II scores more
39%
level
27%
Ursaria scores more
34%

Getafe II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Getafe II 0–0 Ursaria

Getafe II and Ursaria drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Getafe Campo 5 in Madrid.