Getafe II 0–2 UD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Getafe II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UD Logroñés

5/10/2026

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundCiudad Deportiva Fernando Santos de la Parra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Getafe II6%

×Draw37%

UD Logroñés57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.17

1.00

Getafe II

0.17

UD Logroñés

1.00

UD Logroñés creates 488% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Getafe II

0.00

UD Logroñés

0.67

allows per match

Getafe II

1.33

UD Logroñés

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under89
Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No90
Yes10

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–031%

0–131%

0–216%

0–35%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–00%

2–10%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

69%31%1.5

33%67%2.5

11%89%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

43%

Getafe II or UD Logroñés

63%

Draw or UD Logroñés

94%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

1%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

16%

Getafe II 2+ goals

1%

Getafe II 3+ goals

0%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

63%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

26%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

10%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

5%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.00 + UD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

UD Logroñés attack 0.67 + Getafe II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Getafe II scores more

6%

level

37%

UD Logroñés scores more

57%

UD Logroñés at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff