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Getafe II vs SS Reyes — League #879 2026

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
SS Reyes
SS Reyes
A. Mestanza 77', 15'
Rubi 31'
Joselu 11'
10/19/2025League #879League #879 · Group 5 - 7Ciudad Deportiva Fernando Santos de la Parra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Getafe II73%
×Draw19%
SS Reyes9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
2.04
SS Reyes
0.54

Getafe II creates 278% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Getafe II
2.33
SS Reyes
0.75

allows per match

Getafe II
0.33
SS Reyes
1.75

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

SS Reyes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
91%
Getafe II or SS Reyes
81%
Draw or SS Reyes
27%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
47%
SS Reyes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
87%
Getafe II 2+ goals
60%
Getafe II 3+ goals
33%
SS Reyes 1+ goals
42%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
10%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
89%
SS Reyes (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 2.33 + SS Reyes defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

SS Reyes attack 0.75 + Getafe II defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Getafe II scores more
73%
level
19%
SS Reyes scores more
9%

Getafe II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Joselu
15'
A. Mestanza
31'
Rubi
77'
A. Mestanza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs SS Reyes

Getafe II beat SS Reyes 4-0 in League #879 on October 19, 2025.

Goals: Joselu (11'), A. Mestanza (15', 77'), Rubi (31').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Fernando Santos de la Parra in Getafe.