Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Getafe II vs Real Oviedo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
CANC
00:00
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II46%
×Draw27%
Real Oviedo II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.41
Real Oviedo II
1.00

Getafe II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Real Oviedo II
0.92

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Real Oviedo II
1.88

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
73%
Getafe II or Real Oviedo II
73%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
54%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
22%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
76%
Getafe II 2+ goals
41%
Getafe II 3+ goals
17%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
63%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
26%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
63%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Getafe II scores more
46%
level
27%
Real Oviedo II scores more
27%

Getafe II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Getafe II host Real Oviedo II

April 19, 2020: Getafe II take on Real Oviedo II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Getafe II host Real Oviedo II at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.