Getafe II 2–0 Rayo Vallecano II: Result & Stats

Getafe II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rayo Vallecano II

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II48%

×Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Getafe IIExpected goals in this matchRayo Vallecano II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.18

Getafe II

1.62

Rayo Vallecano II

1.18

Getafe II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 97 away

1.71

creates per match

1.36

1.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Getafe II

1.71

Rayo Vallecano II

1.36

allows per match

Getafe II

1.00

Rayo Vallecano II

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par

Rayo Vallecano II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Rayo Vallecano II →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw

72%

Getafe II or Rayo Vallecano II

75%

Draw or Rayo Vallecano II

52%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+

25%

Rayo Vallecano II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals

80%

Getafe II 2+ goals

48%

Getafe II 3+ goals

22%

Rayo Vallecano II 1+ goals

69%

Rayo Vallecano II 2+ goals

33%

Rayo Vallecano II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)

63%

Rayo Vallecano II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Rayo Vallecano II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Rayo Vallecano II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rayo Vallecano II attack 1.36 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Getafe II scores more

48%

level

25%

Rayo Vallecano II scores more

28%

Getafe II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Rayo Vallecano II

Getafe II beat Rayo Vallecano II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.

Getafe II vs Rayo Vallecano II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Rayo Vallecano II