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Getafe II vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
10/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II49%
×Draw26%
Pozuelo Alarcón25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.50
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.98

Getafe II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 97 away

creates per match

Getafe II
1.71
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Getafe II
1.00
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
75%
Getafe II or Pozuelo Alarcón
74%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
51%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
25%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
78%
Getafe II 2+ goals
44%
Getafe II 3+ goals
19%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
62%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
26%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
67%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Getafe II scores more
49%
level
26%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
25%

Getafe II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Pozuelo Alarcón

Getafe II and Pozuelo Alarcón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.