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Getafe II vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
3/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II38%
×Draw29%
Pontevedra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.14
Pontevedra
1.04

Getafe II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 65 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
67%
Getafe II or Pontevedra
71%
Draw or Pontevedra
62%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
16%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
68%
Getafe II 2+ goals
32%
Getafe II 3+ goals
11%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
65%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
28%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
54%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Getafe II scores more
38%
level
29%
Pontevedra scores more
33%

Getafe II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Pontevedra

Pontevedra beat Getafe II 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.