Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Getafe II vs Peña Deportiva — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
9/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Getafe II45%
×Draw26%
Peña Deportiva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.43
Peña Deportiva
1.10

Getafe II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.93
Peña Deportiva
1.14

allows per match

Getafe II
1.07
Peña Deportiva
1.93

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
71%
Getafe II or Peña Deportiva
74%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
55%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
22%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
76%
Getafe II 2+ goals
42%
Getafe II 3+ goals
17%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
67%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
30%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
61%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.93 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Getafe II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Getafe II scores more
45%
level
26%
Peña Deportiva scores more
29%

Getafe II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Getafe II vs Peña Deportiva

Peña Deportiva beat Getafe II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 2 in Getafe.