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Getafe II vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Madrid 2021 FP
Madrid 2021 FP
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Getafe II46%
×Draw26%
Madrid 2021 FP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
1.52
Madrid 2021 FP
1.13

Getafe II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Getafe II
1.71
Madrid 2021 FP
1.26

allows per match

Getafe II
1.00
Madrid 2021 FP
1.34

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
72%
Getafe II or Madrid 2021 FP
74%
Draw or Madrid 2021 FP
54%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
23%
Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
78%
Getafe II 2+ goals
45%
Getafe II 3+ goals
20%
Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals
68%
Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals
31%
Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
62%
Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 1.71 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Getafe II scores more
46%
level
26%
Madrid 2021 FP scores more
28%

Getafe II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Getafe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Getafe II 2 – 1 Madrid 2021 FP

Getafe II beat Madrid 2021 FP 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Getafe - Campo 1 in Getafe.